Kamala Harris Victory: Economic Boost Expected for US Jobs
- Goldman Sachs forecasts a boost in U.S. job growth under a Harris administration, estimating 10,000 more jobs per month than under a divided government and 30,000 more than under a Republican sweep.
- A Trump victory could lead to increased tariffs and stricter immigration policies, negatively affecting economic output and potentially causing a decline in GDP growth.
- The upcoming election is crucial, with current polling showing Trump leading among veterans and active service members, while Harris maintains a slight edge in swing states.
Goldman Sachs predicts significant economic growth in the U.S. if Kamala Harris wins the presidency, estimating an increase of 10,000 jobs per month compared to a divided government under Trump, and 30,000 more than under a Republican sweep. The analysis highlights that a Trump victory could lead to higher tariffs and stricter immigration policies, negatively impacting economic output and potentially causing a peak decline in GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points in the second half of 2025. In contrast, a Democratic administration is expected to implement new spending and expand middle-income tax credits, which would slightly boost GDP growth despite higher corporate tax rates. Recent polling indicates that Trump currently leads Harris among veterans and active service members, although Harris shows strength in key swing states. As the 2024 election approaches, concerns about election security have been raised, with President Biden accusing Russia of attempting to interfere. This political landscape sets the stage for a critical election season, with economic implications hinging on the outcome.