Mets host Red Sox in crucial playoff push at Citi Field

The Mets are returning home after a successful 10-game road trip, where they achieved a 7-3 record, positioning themselves just one game out of a wild-card spot in the playoffs. Their postseason chances have slightly improved to 29.7%. As they prepare to face the Red Sox at Citi Field, the Mets are the betting favorites for the series opener, with Brayan Bello pitching against Luis Severino. This matchup is expected to draw a significant crowd on Labor Day. Luis Severino has struggled to maintain consistent quality starts since the All-Star break, posting an ERA of 4.43 over his last 42 2/3 innings. Despite this, he has a solid strikeout rate of 26.6% and a quality xFIP of 3.56. His performance at Citi Field has been particularly strong, with a low slugging rate allowed. The Mets' pitching staff has faced challenges recently, including a notable collapse in Severino's last outing. On the other hand, the Red Sox have been average against right-handed pitching, with a wRC+ of 104 and an OPS of .750 over the past month. They have struggled with strikeouts, averaging 25.6% during this period. Brayan Bello has shown promise with a 3.00 ERA in his last five starts, although he has had difficulties with runners in scoring position. The weather forecast for the game indicates a temperature of 76 degrees with winds blowing in toward home plate, suggesting a favorable environment for pitchers. Given the recent performances of both teams, betting on the game to go under a total of 8 runs appears to be a prudent choice.