Chipotle braces for lackluster earnings report tomorrow

In the United States, Chipotle Mexican Grill is preparing to disclose its fiscal second quarter results on July 23, 2025. Analysts anticipate the company will report earnings of $0.33 per share, which indicates no growth compared to the previous year’s earnings of the same amount. Sales forecasted at $3.11 billion would showcase a 5% increase when compared to last year’s $2.97 billion. The company has historically faced stock declines post-earnings announcements, experiencing a drop 55% of the time, with an average decrease of 4.9%. The company’s Q1 results indicated a revenue increase of 6% to $2.88 billion, while adjusted earnings per share rose by 7% to $0.29. However, comparable sales declined by 0.4%, causing transaction volumes to fall 2.3%, which was not completely offset by a 1.9% rise in average check size. This decline in transactions has raised concerns regarding the company's performance going into Q2, which is expected to be challenging due to tough sales comparisons and the timing of Easter. With the tough market conditions, Chipotle expects low single-digit comparable sales growth for the year, although there is hope that customer traffic may improve in the latter half of 2025. Currently, the company has a market capitalization of $73 billion and reported revenue over the last twelve months at approximately $11 billion, achieving operational profitability with $2 billion in operating profits and a net income of $1.6 billion. Understanding historical stock patterns may provide insights for traders, as they can evaluate the correlation of post-earnings returns. Data over the last five years showed that Chipotle experienced positive one-day returns after earnings announcements about 45% of the time, a percentage that rises to 50% when considering a more recent three-year period.