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Inside the report

01 General knowledge

A Long War of Attrition and Hybrid Threats

The current tensions are part of a larger story: Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which began in February 2022, has evolved into a grinding war of attrition. Over the years, both sides have increasingly relied on long-range drones and missiles to strike deep into each other's territory, targeting military sites, energy infrastructure, and logistics hubs. This pattern has repeatedly drawn NATO members, especially those bordering Ukraine and Russia, into a state of heightened alert as stray drones and missiles cross their airspace.

The conflict has also expanded beyond the battlefield into what officials call hybrid warfare—a mix of sabotage, cyberattacks, drone incursions, and other actions short of a full military invasion. NATO's eastern flank, including Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states, has faced repeated aerial intrusions, from Russian drones to balloons launched from Belarus. These incidents test the alliance's resolve and preparedness, even as they stop short of triggering a collective military response under Article 5.

The war has already caused immense suffering and destruction, with millions of casualties and widespread damage to civilian infrastructure. Peace talks have repeatedly stalled, and both Moscow and Kyiv continue to escalate their military campaigns, showing no sign of a quick resolution. This larger arc of conflict and hybrid pressure provides the essential context for the latest NATO jet scrambles and the alliance's warnings about Russian hybrid attacks.

02 The subject

NATO's Role in European Defense

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is a military alliance of 32 member countries, including the United States, Canada, and most European nations. Its core mission is to guarantee the collective defense of its members: an attack on one is considered an attack on all, a principle known as Article 5. NATO operates through a unified command structure, with member states contributing forces and capabilities to joint missions, such as air policing along the alliance's eastern border.

In the context of the war in Ukraine, NATO has played a crucial role in reassuring its eastern members, particularly Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states, which feel most exposed to Russian aggression. The alliance regularly scrambles fighter jets to intercept unknown aircraft and drones approaching its airspace, and it has increased its military presence and exercises in the region. NATO's Secretary General, Mark Rutte, serves as the alliance's chief spokesperson and coordinator, often delivering public statements on its readiness and strategic direction.

NATO's decisions are made by consensus among its members, which can sometimes lead to slow or cautious responses. The alliance is currently navigating a delicate balance: supporting Ukraine without directly entering the war, while also preparing for potential hybrid attacks on its own territory. This dual role—deterring Russia while avoiding escalation—defines NATO's current posture in Eastern Europe.

03 Explained

How Hybrid Attacks and Air Policing Work

Hybrid attacks are actions that fall below the threshold of a conventional military invasion but are designed to destabilize or harm an adversary. They can include cyberattacks, sabotage of infrastructure, disinformation campaigns, and the use of drones or other aircraft to probe air defenses. The goal is often to create confusion, test responses, and weaken public confidence without triggering a full-scale war. NATO has developed response options for such threats, which can range from diplomatic protests to military countermeasures.

Air policing is a NATO mission in which member states provide fighter jets to patrol the airspace of allies that lack their own air forces, such as the Baltic states. When an unknown aircraft or drone is detected, these jets are 'scrambled'—launched quickly to intercept and identify the intruder. The process involves radar tracking, visual identification, and sometimes shooting down the object if it poses a threat. These scrambles are routine but have increased significantly as Russian military flights and drone incursions have risen.

The recent incidents in Poland and Romania illustrate this mechanism: NATO jets were scrambled in response to Russian strikes on Ukraine, but no violations of NATO airspace were recorded. The alert was a precautionary measure to ensure the safety of allied territory. Understanding this distinction—between a scramble and an actual incursion—is key to interpreting the news.

04 Previous developments

A Series of Escalating Incidents

The latest scrambles follow a series of similar incidents over the past year. In November 2025, a Russian drone violated Romanian airspace, prompting NATO to scramble German Eurofighters and Romanian F-16s. In February 2026, Poland scrambled jets in response to Russian strikes on western Ukraine, and also monitored balloon-like objects entering its airspace from Belarus. These events have become more frequent as Russia has intensified its aerial campaign against Ukraine.

In July 2026, Romania reported the interception of a drone that had entered its airspace, marking the third consecutive day of NATO aircraft engaging uncrewed vehicles in the region. A Romanian F-16 shot down the drone, though its origin was not confirmed. In August, NATO jets shot down a drone over Latvia, which the Latvian military said may have been a Ukrainian strike drone diverted by Russian electronic warfare. These incidents highlight the growing complexity of the airspace situation.

The frequency of NATO scrambles has also risen sharply. In July 2026, NATO reported a 250% increase in fighter jet scrambles compared to the same month the previous year, due to Russian military aircraft flying near allied airspace without flight plans. This pattern of provocations and responses has set the stage for the current crisis, where NATO leaders are publicly warning about Russian hybrid attacks.

05 The environment

Current Tensions and Allied Positions

As of late September 2026, the war in Ukraine is in its fifth year, with no end in sight. Russia has launched a massive drone and missile attack on Ukraine, involving 161 drones and cruise missiles, causing casualties in several regions. In response, NATO jets were scrambled in Poland and Romania, but no airspace violations were recorded. The attacks have also drawn warnings from NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who said the alliance is prepared to respond to Russian hybrid attacks.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has warned that Russia is planning hybrid attacks involving drones or rockets against European countries that support Ukraine, citing intelligence from NATO, Ukrainian, and U.S. secret services. He said Russia intends to portray these attacks as accidental to weaken NATO's collective defense resolve. Meanwhile, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has urged European allies to take the lead in defending their continent, proposing a 'NATO 3.0' focused on strengthening military capabilities.

Danish intelligence has warned of a growing risk of Russian military action against NATO countries, and Spanish media reported that U.S. intelligence had alerted European countries to a possible Russian drone operation targeting Spain, France, or Italy. These warnings have heightened the sense of urgency among NATO members, even as they debate how to respond. The U.S. has informed allies it will no longer provide certain warships and aircraft in the event of an attack on a NATO member, leaving European allies to assess capability gaps.

06 Why this happened

Why Russia Is Using Hybrid Tactics

The recent hybrid attacks and drone incursions are part of Russia's strategy to pressure NATO without triggering a full-scale war. By using drones and other means to probe air defenses, Russia aims to test the alliance's resolve and create a sense of insecurity among its members. Polish Prime Minister Tusk has said that Russia intends to portray these attacks as accidental to weaken NATO's collective defense resolve, a tactic that allows Moscow to deny responsibility while still achieving its goals.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has argued that the growing number of hybrid incidents indicates that Russian President Vladimir Putin is losing the war in Ukraine. He said Putin is in a 'bad place' and that Russia is not winning, urging NATO members to provide more support for Ukraine to signal resolve against hybrid attacks. This suggests that Russia's hybrid actions may be a response to its military setbacks on the battlefield, as it seeks alternative ways to undermine Western support for Ukraine.

The use of jet-powered drones, which are faster and harder to intercept, has also increased, straining Ukraine's air defenses and forcing NATO to respond. Russia has launched hundreds of such drones at Ukrainian cities, causing widespread disruption. The combination of military pressure on Ukraine and hybrid attacks on NATO members appears designed to exhaust Western patience and resources, while avoiding a direct confrontation that could escalate into a broader war.

07 Facts and events

Consequences and Comparisons

The escalating drone war has had significant consequences beyond the battlefield. In August 2026, Ukraine launched one of its largest aerial attacks of the war, sending hundreds of drones toward Russia, including 600 aimed at Moscow. The attack killed at least six people in Russia and caused damage to a major logistics warehouse, highlighting Ukraine's growing capability to strike deep into Russian territory. This has brought the war home to Russian civilians, potentially affecting public support for the conflict.

The strain on air defenses is also a major concern. Ukraine has developed new interceptor drones to counter Russian jet-powered Shaheds, but the sheer volume of attacks is overwhelming. In the first three weeks of September 2026 alone, Russia launched 2,100 jet-powered attack drones and 136 missiles, killing 288 people, including four children. This has led to calls for more air defense support from Western allies, but political leaders remain hesitant to escalate.

The situation has also affected neighboring countries. Moldova has reported multiple airspace violations and found drone debris on its territory, while Romania has seen an increase in drone incursions. These incidents have forced NATO to maintain a high state of alert, with fighter jets frequently scrambled. The ongoing conflict shows no signs of abating, and the risk of a direct NATO-Russia confrontation remains a constant concern.

08 Questions answered

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Article 5 of NATO, and why is it important?

Article 5 is NATO's collective defense clause, stating that an armed attack on one member is considered an attack on all, which is why the alliance takes any incursion seriously.

Why are drones straying into NATO airspace?

Drones often stray into NATO airspace due to electronic jamming and the chaos of the conflict, with some being Ukrainian drones diverted by Russian electronic warfare, while others are Russian drones probing defenses.

What is the 'NATO 3.0' proposal mentioned by the US Defense Secretary?

The 'NATO 3.0' proposal is a call for NATO to return to being a 'real hard-line military alliance' with stronger capabilities to deter threats in Europe, as stated by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

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