- US military spending on the Iran war has surpassed $47 billion.
Robinson threatened Young on phone
During a phone call on August 5, 2024, Tommy Robinson told journalist Andrew Young 'I'm coming to get you'.





































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During a phone call on August 5, 2024, Tommy Robinson told journalist Andrew Young 'I'm coming to get you'.
After the Daily Mail published a story about him, Tommy Robinson hired private investigators to locate the home addresses of journalists Andrew Young, Jacob Dirnhuber, and editor Ted Verity.
I am guilty of harassing Andrew Young and Jacob Dirnhuber, causing them to fear violence.
I did not intend to intimidate the journalists; I only wanted the Daily Mail to remove a photograph of my former wife.
The verdict is insane.
Tommy Robinson was found guilty by a 10-2 majority jury at Southwark Crown Court of two charges of harassment causing fear of violence against journalists Andrew Young and Jacob Dirnhuber.
Justice John Cavanagh granted Tommy Robinson bail at Southwark Crown Court ahead of his sentencing hearing on December 16.
Reform UK is unable to monitor members who back Tommy Robinson, and liking an online post does not make someone a full-blown supporter.
If Robinson has been convicted of harassment, then his conduct is obviously very wrong.
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01 General knowledge
The Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, has been fighting inflation that has stayed above its 2% target for over five years. This struggle has shaped its interest rate decisions, which influence borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans, and credit cards across the economy. The Fed's preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, rose 3.7% in June 2026 compared to a year earlier, down from 4.1% in May. Even with some cooling, inflation has remained stubbornly high, driven by factors like rising energy prices and the ongoing war in Iran.
The Fed's recent policy path has been cautious and divided. In late 2025, under then-Chair Jerome Powell, the Fed cut rates three times to support a weakening job market, but signaled only one more cut in 2026 due to persistent inflation. By early 2026, minutes from the January meeting showed growing dissent, with some officials considering rate hikes if inflation did not fall as expected. This backdrop of high inflation and a divided committee set the stage for a new era when Kevin Warsh took over as chair in May 2026.
02 The subject
The Federal Reserve, often called the Fed, is the central bank of the United States, responsible for setting the country's monetary policy to achieve maximum employment and stable prices. Its main tool is the federal funds rate, the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight, which influences borrowing costs throughout the economy. The Fed's rate-setting committee, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets regularly to decide whether to raise, lower, or hold this rate. Kevin Warsh, who became chairman in May 2026, has emphasized the Fed's independence and its commitment to controlling inflation, which he has called a 'choice' attributable to the central bank's decisions.
03 Explained
When the Fed raises its benchmark interest rate, borrowing becomes more expensive for consumers and businesses, which can slow spending and help cool inflation. Conversely, cutting rates makes borrowing cheaper, encouraging spending and investment to boost economic growth. The Fed's decisions also influence long-term rates, such as those for mortgages and government bonds, though these are also affected by other factors like government borrowing and investor demand. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, which is why gold prices often fall when rate hikes are expected.
04 Previous developments
In December 2025, the Fed cut rates for the third straight time, but signaled a cautious pause ahead. By June 2026, under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the Fed held rates steady at its first meeting under his leadership, with nearly half of policymakers signaling a possible hike later in the year. In September 2026, the Fed raised its key rate by a quarter-point to about 3.9%, the first increase in three years, despite public pressure from President Trump to cut rates. This hike came after inflation accelerated, with September's consumer and wholesale data exceeding expectations.
The decision to hike in September was not without controversy. President Trump criticized the Fed's rate-setting committee, though he expressed continued support for Warsh. The Fed's minutes from that meeting revealed that most officials expected another rate hike later in the year to combat persistent inflation. This set the stage for the October meeting, where the Fed is expected to hold rates steady, with Wall Street projecting a hike in December.
05 The environment
As of late October 2026, inflation stands at 3.7%, with high oil prices and elevated diesel costs adding to household burdens. Gas and grocery prices have surged, affecting affordability for many families. The Fed's decision comes just six days before the US midterm elections, and the outcome could influence voter sentiment on economic management. Borrowing costs have already priced out millions of households from the housing market, and long-term Treasury yields have climbed to levels not seen since before the 2007 financial crisis.
President Trump has repeatedly called for lower rates, even suggesting they should be 1% or less, creating tension with the Fed's independence. Warsh has defended the Fed's operational independence, but the political pressure remains intense. Investors are closely watching Warsh's statements for clues about future policy moves, with markets pricing in a high chance of a rate hike in December. The economic environment is further complicated by the ongoing war in Iran, which has kept oil prices elevated and contributed to inflation.
06 Why this happened
The Fed's decision to hold rates steady in October is driven by a need to balance inflation control with the risk of slowing the economy. Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, but a rate hike so close to the midterm elections could be seen as politically motivated, even though the Fed is independent. The Fed's cautious approach reflects a desire to avoid exacerbating inflation while also supporting job creation and economic stability. Warsh's communication style, which avoids forward guidance, has also contributed to market uncertainty, as investors seek clarity on future policy moves.
The recent rate hike in September was a response to persistent inflation, but the Fed is now waiting to see if inflation cools before making further moves. High oil prices, driven by the Iran war, and strong consumer spending have kept inflation elevated. The Fed's decision is also influenced by the job market, which has shown resilience, with employers adding an average of 92,000 jobs per month in 2026. This strength gives the Fed room to hold rates steady while it assesses the impact of its previous hikes.
07 Facts and events
The Fed's decisions have significant ripple effects on global markets. For instance, gold prices have fallen to their lowest level since August, heading for their sharpest weekly decline in more than four months, as expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion. In contrast, the Bank of Thailand kept its key rate unchanged at 1.00% on the same day, highlighting different economic conditions across the world. The US dollar held onto gains ahead of the Fed decision, reaching a two-week high, as investors focused on the rate outlook.
The Fed's rate hike in September also had immediate market impacts, with stocks rebounding after an initial sell-off. Investors doubted Warsh's willingness to tackle inflation, leading to volatility. The 30-year Treasury yield has climbed to levels not seen since before the 2007 financial crisis, driven by heavy government borrowing and AI-related corporate debt. This has made mortgages and other loans more expensive, adding to the affordability crisis for many Americans.
08 Questions answered
The Fed's operational independence allows it to make monetary policy decisions based on economic data rather than political pressure, which is crucial for maintaining credibility and controlling inflation.
The Fed's rate decisions influence borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans, and credit cards, so a rate hike makes these loans more expensive, while a cut makes them cheaper.
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