Ethiopia's current crisis is the latest chapter in a long and violent struggle over political power and regional autonomy. The country is a federation of ethnic-based regions, and for nearly three decades the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) dominated the central government. That dominance ended in 2018 when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power, shifting the balance of power and fueling resentments that erupted into a devastating civil war from November 2020 to November 2022. That war, fought between the federal government and the TPLF, drew in neighboring Eritrea and local militias, and left an estimated 500,000 to 600,000 people dead, according to researchers and the African Union.

The 2022 Pretoria Agreement brought a formal end to the fighting, but it left many underlying disputes unresolved. The peace deal called for the withdrawal of foreign forces and the disarmament of Tigrayan fighters, but implementation has been slow and contested. Since then, Ethiopia has faced multiple overlapping crises: a separate conflict in the Amhara region with the Fano militia, an ongoing insurgency in Oromia by the Oromo Liberation Army, and a deteriorating humanitarian situation. These unresolved tensions have created a fragile environment where a return to large-scale violence remains a constant threat.