Labour anticipates an influx of 'quiet Reform' voters in specific regions
- Labour activists are preparing for a surge of 'shy Reform' voters in certain northern and Midlands seats.
- They predict tight margins of less than 2,000 votes separating them from Farage's party, potentially leading to a shock defeat.
- The conservative majority could be at risk if the Reform Party gains momentum, leaving Starmer with a potential super-majority.
In the lead-up to the general election, Labour candidates and activists are preparing for a potential surge in support for Nigel Farage's hard-right Reform UK party in north-west England and the Midlands. There are concerns that in some constituencies, the margin between Labour and Reform UK could be as narrow as 2,000 votes. The situation is complicated by a double splintering of the vote, with left-leaning candidates appealing to BAME voters while Reform UK gains traction among white voters who might have otherwise considered switching to Labour from the Conservatives. Labour organisers are wary of the growing support for Reform UK, drawing parallels to the unpredictability seen in the 2015 election with Ukip. With postal vote turnout at 80%, there are indications that former Tories may not be uniformly supporting Labour. There are fears of potential shock defeats for Labour in certain seats, particularly those with a predominantly white population and weak Labour candidates challenging Conservative incumbents. Despite limited evidence of an effective ground campaign by Reform UK, activists suspect that undecided white voters are leaning towards the party, especially in areas where local issues like asylum seeker accommodations or infrastructure projects are contentious. Labour-held seats facing significant unpredictability due to the splintering of the vote include constituencies represented by Debbie Abrahams and Jim McMahon in Oldham, as well as Bury North where the Conservative majority is slim. While many candidates and activists remain confident in Labour's overall prospects for victory, there is a growing recognition of the need to address the potential threat posed by Reform UK in future elections. Concerns are raised about a "Ukip effect" where votes are split between Labour and the Conservatives, potentially bolstering Farage's influence. Efforts are being planned to persuade senior Labour strategists to prioritize countering Reform UK's appeal in upcoming electoral campaigns.