Turkey pushes for influence in northern Syria amid changing power dynamics

In the aftermath of the prolonged civil war in Syria, various regional and international actors, including Turkey, the US, and the EU, are vying for influence in the post-Assad landscape. The chaotic conditions created by years of conflict have led to a power vacuum that is provoking competition among these countries, all eager to secure their interests and establish a foothold in the reconstruction efforts of Syria. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a prominent group responsible for toppling Bashar al-Assad, has begun to take steps that position it as a central player in forming a new transitional government, aiming to rebrand itself as legitimate in a country that has been decimated by war. HTS’s evolution poses complex implications for the future of governance in Syria, particularly given the diverse and often conflicting interests of major actors in the region. Simultaneously, Turkey’s strategic maneuvers strive to incorporate northern Syria within its security framework, often countering the ambitions of Kurdish factions, who receive support from the United States. This dynamic adds to the already intricate political landscape, ensuring that the Kurdish issue remains pivotal in any potential resolution to the conflict. Iranian policies may at times align with Turkey, creating a further layer of regional intrigue and complicating efforts for broader stabilization. As these geopolitical shifts unfold, the international community, particularly the US and the EU, faces challenges in balancing sanctions and facilitating a political transition that reflects the will of the Syrian populace. The effective consolidation of power by HTS could serve to unify various armed factions, reducing the likelihood of further fragmentation and enhancing the prospects for effective governance in Syria. Ultimately, the successful integration of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) into a broader political framework will hinge on their willingness to relinquish arms in exchange for political representation. Achieving peace requires concerted action from Arab states to collaborate on identifying and addressing the root causes of the decade-long conflict, securing a path towards healing and reconstruction.