Lancet study inflates USAID's impact on millions of lives

In a controversial study published in The Lancet, researchers claimed that USAID programs saved over 90 million lives worldwide between 2001 and 2021. This claim was primarily based on statistical models and projections that have drawn criticism for their validity. Notably, most of the mortality decline was reported in China, which had minimal USAID financial aid. In contrast, the least developed countries that received the most funding experienced a rise in mortality during the same period. Critics argue that the study's methodology lacks robustness, as it fails to adequately account for variables such as major health shocks and deaths resulting from global crises. Furthermore, reliance on regression analysis did not convincingly demonstrate a direct correlation between USAID funding and improvements in mortality rates. The lack of good control variables and the selective nature of the data lead to questions about the reliability of the findings, which could undermine public confidence in the science of foreign aid. Despite the significant conclusions drawn by the study's authors, it faces scrutiny for its failure to logically connect the dots between funding and the stated outcomes, raising concerns about the accuracy of estimates of lives saved.