Salesforce predicts $263 billion in AI-driven holiday sales

In September 2025, Salesforce released its annual holiday forecast predicting significant shifts in consumer shopping behavior and an increase in ecommerce sales attributable to the integration of artificial intelligence. The report anticipates that global ecommerce sales in November and December will hit a record $1.25 trillion, reflecting a 4% year-over-year increase, with U.S. online retail sales expected to rise by 2.1%. This rise is primarily linked to growing reliance on AI recommendations, which are projected to account for 21% of all holiday orders globally. The report highlights the dramatic uptick in the use of AI technologies, such as ChatGPT and Gemini, by consumers when making purchasing decisions. Salesforce found that from May to August 2025, the percentage of U.S. consumers who begin their product searches using AI chat assistants surged by 38%. The insights demonstrate a shift in consumer trust and behavior, with 87% of AI users expressing confidence in AI-generated recommendations. Notably, 57% of these users utilize AI search tools while physically shopping in stores. The effectiveness of AI-driven recommendations is evident, as conversion rates from AI channels were reported to be 700% higher than those sourced from social media and 200% higher than traditional search methods. Given these statistics, it becomes increasingly vital for brands and retailers to refine their product listings, promotional strategies, and messaging to resonate with AI-driven search experiences. Caila Schwartz, Director of Strategy and Consumer Insights at Salesforce, emphasized the shifting landscape for retailers as they explore how to optimize their products for Large Language Model searches. Schwartz noted that over the last two months, discussions with customers have revealed that the primary concern among retailers is how to integrate successfully into AI-driven searches for platforms like ChatGPT. As consumers lean more towards cost-effective and sustainable shopping practices, the report also anticipates a $64 billion increase in secondhand sales, with nearly half of shoppers planning to gift previously owned items this season. Furthermore, Salesforce projects a broader shift in holiday shopping habits, indicating that major spending will likely occur online, although physical stores will still attract significant traffic, primarily from Generation Z shoppers. The holiday forecast outlines critical insights into consumer purchasing behavior that are likely to shape retail strategies moving forward as brands adapt to an evolving digital marketplace driven by AI technologies.