EU faces record influx of Russian LNG amid pipeline gas disruption

In 2024, the European Union experienced an unprecedented increase in the import of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia. This development occurred just ahead of Ukraine’s decision to halt its gas transit contract with Russian energy giant Gazprom, which had been a crucial pipeline for supplying gas to several European countries, including Romania, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, Italy, and Moldova. As Ukraine decided not to extend its five-year contract with Gazprom, it directly impacted the volume of Russian pipeline gas flowing into the EU. The termination of this transit arrangement marked a significant turning point in the relationship between EU energy needs and Russian gas supplies, intensifying scrutiny of the acting players in the energy sector, including alternative resources and suppliers. In the backdrop of this termination, the EU saw its imports of Russian LNG soar to approximately 15.5 million tons in 2024, illustrating a stark shift in energy dependency towards LNG, despite ongoing commitments to reduce reliance on Russian energy. This marked an increase from previous years, particularly notable when compared to the figure from 2020, which saw about 10.5 million tons imported. Moreover, the data suggests that in 2023, Russian gas exports to the EU totaled around 30 billion cubic meters. The strategic importance of LNG became clear as European nations navigated energy security amidst the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and sanctions on Russian gas. Despite the EU's concerted efforts to abandon Russian energy resources, experts suggest that the reliance on Russian LNG is not expected to decline significantly in the near term. Analysts from institutions like Oxford Economics pointed out that Europe would still require gas, positing that it may end up purchasing higher amounts of Russian LNG to compensate for the reduced pipeline gas supplies from Russia resulting from geopolitical tensions. Since the conflict intensified, with critical infrastructure like the Nord Stream pipelines being severed, the geopolitical landscape has positioned LNG as a pivotal energy resource. Both Germany and other EU member states faced a complex decision to balance energy security and political alignment concerning Russian gas imports. The situation further complicated as the European Commission imposed sanctions targeting Russian gas. The sanctions, implemented in June, intended to tighten policies against the circumventing of LNG supplies. These efforts detail Europe’s struggle to find pathways to energy independence while still relying significantly on Russian gas supplies, revealing the complexities of energy alliances in a volatile market.