JPMorgan declares Amazon as top holiday stock choice

In the United States, on November 27, 2024, JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth recommended that investors consider adding Amazon to their holiday stock portfolios. This recommendation comes on the heels of substantial expectations for a 7.5% year-over-year growth and market share gains in online shopping. Notably, Amazon holds approximately a 45% share of the U.S. e-commerce market. The analysis highlights Amazon's strong positioning as the holiday shopping season approaches, fueled by enticing early promotions and enhanced delivery options like same-day and next-day services. Further, there is optimism in the competitive pricing strategies which have made Amazon a preferred choice for consumers. Anmuth's enthusiasm reflects a larger trend observed in recent consumer spending data from Chase, which indicates a resurgence in overall spending patterns. Such consumer behavior is particularly significant as this holiday season is expected to be the shortest since 2019, adding urgency to consumer purchasing decisions. The analyst positioned Amazon as a frontrunner to navigate this condensed shopping period effectively by capitalizing on early markdowns and rigorous price matching strategies. Long-term projections from Anmuth construct a positive narrative around Amazon's e-commerce business. He anticipates a nearly doubling of Amazon's market share from 22% of adjusted retail sales to 40% in the future, with a targeted 24.5% share during the holiday season. Anmuth's confidence is grounded in the expectation that U.S. e-commerce will continue to gain market share through 2024 and into 2025, driven by deeper penetration in large, currently under-penetrated categories such as consumer packaged goods, apparel, home furnishings, and equipment. With Amazon shares up over 35% for the year to date and projections indicating an additional near 13% rise, there is a heightened sense of optimism among analysts. Out of 70 analysts monitoring Amazon, an overwhelming majority, 66, recommend it as a buy or strong buy. This consensus among experts underlines the perceived resilience and potential of Amazon amidst changing market dynamics and evolving consumer habits as the holiday shopping season unfolds.