Antarctic tourism could skyrocket in coming years

In the coming years, the implications of growing tourism in Antarctica could become severe. As of now, tourism in Antarctica is largely controlled by the Antarctic Treaty System and the International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators (IAATO), which struggles to impose limitations on visitor numbers due to its slow-moving nature and geopolitical challenges. By 2033-34, projections suggest that visitor numbers may reach approximately 285,000, with about two-thirds of tourists landing on the continent itself. This influx poses significant threats to its fragile ecosystems, underscoring the urgent need for effective regulations. Environmental studies indicate that even non-docking cruise ships can cause severe pollution, including air, water, noise pollution, and potential damage to the seabed. As visitors increase, the carbon emissions associated with tourism are also projected to rise significantly, comparable to what an average person produces in a year. It is crucial that the negative impacts of tourism on Antarctica’s ecosystem are managed more effectively, to prevent irreversible damage to the environment. Designing economic mechanisms, such as a tax on tourist visits or a cap-and-trade system, could aid in controlling the number of visitors while raising necessary revenue for environmental enforcement and research. Bhutan serves as a viable example of a taxation model, where each tourist pays a nightly tax, funding valuable conservation efforts. Conversely, the structure of visitor permits in a cap-and-trade system could also regulate tourist entries but must rely on sound evidence regarding the continent's environmental capacity to sustain visitor numbers. While some binding regulations have yet to be established by parties of the Antarctic Treaty, the implications of inaction could have far-reaching consequences. The protection of Antarctica hinges on the establishment of substantive, evidence-based rules to manage the burgeoning tourism industry before it becomes unmanageable.