Japan general election: what would it take for the ruling LDP party to be ousted?

Japan is facing political turmoil as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) prepares for elections scheduled for October 27, 2024, a year sooner than anticipated due to the resignation of former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. His departure followed a decline in public approval ratings and increasing dissatisfaction over the party's repeated corruption scandals, specifically allegations of 'money politics.' This political instability has led to Shigeru Ishiba being chosen as Kishida’s successor, tasked with reviving the party's fortunes. Ishiba's leadership comes at a critical time when the LDP is looking to consolidate its stance amid a cost-of-living crisis and dissatisfaction with leadership. His appointment also follows a factional struggle within the party, which he narrowly navigated. As elections approach, Ishiba is seen as a moderate counter to more ultra-conservative factions within the LDP, and he pledges to impose accountability on members linked to the corruption scandals. Despite these challenges, polling data suggests that the LDP could emerge victorious in the upcoming elections. Recent surveys show the LDP leading significantly over the opposition, driven by the latter's fragmentation and projections of low voter turnout. The LDP aims to secure at least 233 seats, thereby maintaining its majority in the 465-seat lower house. The situation illustrates the resilience of the LDP in the face of ongoing challenges including public concern over its financial misconduct and ties to controversial organizations. However, the party's ability to retain power may hinge on Ishiba's effectiveness in navigating these issues and uniting the party.