Impact of VP Choices on US Election

As the Democratic National Convention approaches in Chicago on August 19, Kamala Harris is poised to secure the party's nomination, recently revealing her choice for a running mate. This announcement comes three weeks after Donald Trump named his own vice-presidential candidate, drawing significant media attention to both campaigns. Notably, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Ohio Senator JD Vance have emerged as key figures in the ongoing political discourse. The role of the vice president has evolved significantly over the years, with past vice presidents like Walter Mondale, Al Gore, and Dick Cheney enhancing the position's influence. Historically, since 1945, several vice presidents have ascended to the presidency, including Harry Truman and Joe Biden, which has contributed to a perception of the role as more than just a political afterthought. This shift has led to increased scrutiny of running mates, as their selection can impact voter sentiment. In their book, "Do Running Mates Matter?", authors Christopher Devine and Kyle Kopko outline the potential effects of a running mate on electoral outcomes. They identify a direct effect, where voters' opinions of a running mate can influence their votes, and a targeted effect, where voters with similar demographics or ideologies may be swayed. However, the authors note that these effects are often weak and short-lived, as voters typically form opinions based on their own ideological leanings rather than the candidates' attributes. Harris's decision to select a White man from the Midwest, JD Vance, appears to be a strategic move to balance her ticket. Vance, who shares a similar nativist and anti-establishment stance as Trump, reflects Harris's intention to appeal to a broader voter base while navigating the complexities of the current political landscape.