Romania faces limited impact from 15% US customs duties on European exports

In July 2025, economists indicated that Romania's exposure to the 15% customs duties imposed on European exports to the USA is relatively small. With exports to the USA accounting for less than 3% of total Romanian exports, the potential direct impact on the country is limited. Iulian Lolea, a macroeconomist with the Concordia Employers’ Confederation, explained that while certain Romanian sectors will face direct repercussions due to their connections to the American market, the broader economic impact will largely come from indirect channels. Lolea pointed out that Romania is significantly tied to its larger European partners such as Germany and France. When these countries experience economic downturns due to American tariffs, their reduced purchasing power may lead to decreased demand for Romanian goods, particularly in sectors most affected by tariffs, such as electrical components, automotive parts, and several manufacturing industries. The economic interdependence between Romania and other European nations means that fluctuations in their economies could have ripple effects across the region. Furthermore, Lolea noted that while lower tariffs from the new trade agreement might mitigate some adverse effects on European exporters, the overall competitiveness of European goods in the US market remains compromised. This concern stems from the dual challenges of increased tariffs and the appreciation of the euro against the dollar, which has occurred over the past year. As a result, international organizations are estimating a possible reduction in economic growth within the euro area, which includes Romania. These forecasts suggest that Romania could see a reduction in its growth rate due to these external economic pressures. Overall, while Romania’s direct exposure to US tariffs is limited, the implications for economic growth could be significant due to interconnectedness with larger European economies. Lolea expressed that even with new agreements, the potential distortions in trade flows and expected challenges for exporters will require careful observation and management from Romanian business leaders and policymakers to navigate this evolving economic landscape.