François Bayrou struggles to form a government before Christmas

France is currently dealing with a significant political crisis as the newly appointed Prime Minister, François Bayrou, attempts to establish a government amid growing uncertainties. Appointed on December 13, 2024, Bayrou is under immense pressure to finalize his cabinet before Christmas, a self-imposed deadline intended to restore stability. President Emmanuel Macron recently returned to Paris after a visit to cyclone-stricken Mayotte and East Africa and has been in continuous discussions with Bayrou regarding the government's composition. Despite these efforts, it appears that the public and political observers are growing skeptical about Bayrou's chances of longevity in this role. Previously, Michel Barnier's short-lived administration ended due to a lack of support, marking a notable decline in governmental stability in France. The political landscape is further complicated by the fractured parliamentary dynamics where the centrist parties face strong opposition from both the far left and far right. This division has deterred previous efforts by Barnier to pass crucial budgets, exposing a deeper problem within French politics where cooperation across party lines is increasingly difficult. As Bayrou consults with various political factions over the weekend, his primary concern is to ensure that his government survives a no-confidence vote, scheduled for January 14, 2025. He is seeking collaboration with eminent figures from different political backgrounds to bolster his majority, acknowledging that failure could lead to dire consequences for French governance. Observers remain cautious about the viability of this approach, especially as Bayrou’s cabinet is yet to be unveiled. With the looming national day of mourning for the victims of Cyclone Chido in Mayotte, the political climate is further charged. The tragedy has galvanized public sentiment and focuses attention on government effectiveness, enhancing the scrutiny Bayrou faces. As this political drama unfolds, many commentators suggest that Bayrou, as the sixth prime minister of Macron’s presidency and the fourth in 2024 alone, may ultimately face a similarly short tenure unless he can decisively overcome the current crises plaguing his administration.