US proposal undermines Iran's geopolitical influence in the Caucasus

The US has submitted a proposal to lease the Zangezur Corridor, a crucial 43-kilometer passage through Armenia's Syunik province, aiming to facilitate trade between mainland Azerbaijan and its Naxcivan exclave. This initiative could potentially unlock $50-100 billion in annual trade flows and enhance European energy security while reducing reliance on Russian energy. However, the proposal has sparked tensions in the South Caucasus, especially from Iran, which sees this corridor as a direct threat to its regional access to the South Caucasus and geopolitical influence. Iran’s loss of direct land access could severely limit its trade options, making it heavily dependent on Azerbaijan, which poses serious threats to its economic standing and political leverage in the region. In a region already marked by historical tensions, the proposal's implications are vast. The Azerbaijani government views the corridor as vital for its post-war integration and as part of efforts to reinforce its territorial claims following the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. With the proposed American management of the corridor, Iran fears losing connectivity and influence, which it has relied upon for trade with Europe and Russia. Senior Iranian analysts describe the possibility of the corridor being managed by international powers as a step toward Iran's geopolitical vulnerability, indicating deeper anxieties about its encirclement by foreign influence. While Baku and Yerevan express skepticism over American involvement, Azerbaijan specifically rejects the idea of third-party management, wanting no outside intervention in what it considers a sovereign matter. For Iran, sidelining the established routes through Armenia means an acute loss of strategic maneuverability, as its northern trade access comes under greater scrutiny and control by foreign actors. As nations engage in strategic recalibrations, the developments surrounding the Zangezur Corridor challenge the traditional security dynamics dominated by Russia and Iran in the region. The increasing presence of US interests signals a shift in power balances, as local nations assess their roles amid the evolving influence of external powers. Ultimately, the corridor represents not just a logistics and transport initiative but a testing ground for diplomatic relations, national sovereignty, and economic competition in the region, with outcomes that could redefine the regional order in coming years.