Bank of America predicts no 2024 U.S. recession

In a recent interview on CBS's "Face the Nation," Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan announced that the anticipated U.S. recession is no longer expected. Reflecting on the economic landscape, Moynihan stated, "Last year, this time, it was a recession. This year we talked about now there's no recession," indicating a shift in the bank's outlook. This change suggests that the Federal Reserve's measures to control inflation while supporting economic growth are proving effective. Despite the positive outlook, Moynihan noted a slowdown in consumer spending, which has decreased to a growth rate of about 3% in July and August, half of what it was in 2023. He emphasized that while consumers still have funds available, their spending habits have become more cautious. "They're employed, they're earning money, but... they've really slowed down," he remarked, highlighting the delicate balance between managing inflation and avoiding a recession. However, not all analysts share Bank of America's optimism. A recent disappointing jobs report has raised concerns among economists, leading to discussions about the potential onset of a recession. This report contributed to a significant stock market decline, underscoring the uncertainty in the economic outlook. Looking ahead, Moynihan projected a gradual growth trajectory for the U.S. economy, estimating growth rates of 2% and then 1.5% over the next six quarters. He noted that the Federal Reserve's target interest rates are expected to stabilize between 3% and 3.5%, marking a return to more normalized economic conditions.