UN envoy warns of imminent violence in Syria's fragile ceasefire

Syria's ongoing transition remains precarious as the top U.N. envoy, Geir Pedersen, expressed deep concerns about the potential for renewed violence. Following a ceasefire on July 19, the southern city of Sweida has seen a temporary reduction in hostilities; however, tensions remain high. The Druze population, who suffered deadly clashes with local Sunni Muslim Bedouin tribes last month, are still on edge, alongside government forces whose intervention has stirred further conflict between these groups. Israel's involvement through airstrikes further complicates the situation, demonstrating the fragile balance of power in the region. Pedersen's briefing to the U.N. Security Council highlighted the ongoing threat to Syria's sovereignty and unity, which has been severely impacted by deep ethnic and religious divisions following the ouster of President Bashar Assad. Despite a month of relative military calm, the political climate is deteriorating, with increasing hostility and escalatory rhetoric surfacing among various factions. The U.N. humanitarian chief, Tom Fletcher, described the humanitarian conditions as dire, noting that 16 million people in Syria require aid. His statement emphasizes the urgent need for money and resources as humanitarian efforts remain dangerously underfunded. The risk of violence resuming in Sweida and surrounding areas poses a significant challenge to efforts for peace and stability. The urgent call for security sector reforms and the disarmament of non-government forces is crucial to creating a safer environment for all Syrians, according to Pedersen. He warned that without a genuine political transition, the support from international actors could be misused or wasted, preventing Syria from achieving long-term stability, good governance, and justice. As Syria continues to experience the aftershocks of years of civil war, the situation remains fluid and uncertain. The delicate ceasefire provides a temporary respite, but the underlying causes of conflict, including ethnic tensions and political instability, require urgent addressing to avoid a resurgence of violence. Without proactive measures to reconcile conflicting factions and establish a lasting peace, the prospects for a stable Syria remain bleak.