China may seize Taiwan islands within 6 months, testing US resolve

Recent reports indicate that China may attempt to seize Taiwan's offshore Kinmen Islands within the next six months, capitalizing on perceived weaknesses in U.S. resolve and Taiwan's political landscape. The Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute suggest that Chinese leader Xi Jinping sees a unique opportunity for a coercion campaign against Kinmen, especially before the inauguration of a new U.S. president in January 2025. The situation has escalated following Taiwan's presidential election in January and subsequent tensions, including the boarding of a Taiwanese fishing vessel by Chinese coast guard vessels in July. The report outlines a potential timeline for China's actions, starting with increased incursions by the Chinese Coast Guard into Kinmen's waters. This could lead to attempts to board Taiwanese ships and the deployment of surveillance drones over military bases in Kinmen. The researchers warn that an incident could be orchestrated to justify a quarantine zone around the islands, effectively limiting Taiwan's ability to receive military support. The psychological impact of seizing Kinmen is emphasized, as it could shift the balance of power and influence Taiwan's political dynamics. The Lai administration may face increased pressure from opposition parties advocating for closer ties with China, potentially undermining Taiwan's reliance on the United States. A recent poll indicates that a significant majority of Taiwanese oppose the idea of unification under the Chinese political system. To counter these threats, the report recommends that Taiwan enhance its maritime capabilities and consider joint sanctions against China. Maintaining sovereignty over Kinmen is deemed crucial for Taiwan's security and regional stability, as the situation continues to evolve amid rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait.