India-Pakistan tensions impact upcoming SCO summit in Islamabad

On August 29, Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Islamabad would host the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit on October 15-16, marking a significant gathering of world leaders since 2012. The invitation extended to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi raises questions about his attendance, especially given the ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan, particularly over Kashmir. The relationship has been strained due to accusations of Pakistan sponsoring terrorism in India, which the Indian government has consistently highlighted. The backdrop of this summit is the historical context of India-Pakistan relations, which have been marred by multiple wars and ongoing conflict in Kashmir since 1989. The recent visit of Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari to India was a rare diplomatic engagement, but the signals from India suggest that Modi is unlikely to attend the summit. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar's statements indicate a firm stance against dialogue with Pakistan under current circumstances. In the past, there have been instances of dialogue between the two nations, such as the 2015 meeting in Ufa, Russia, which resulted in a joint statement. However, the relationship has deteriorated since then, particularly after India boycotted the SAARC summit in 2016, leading to its indefinite postponement. The ongoing rivalry has effectively paralyzed SAARC, contrasting with the SCO's stronger leadership under China and Russia. Concerns persist regarding the impact of India-Pakistan tensions on the SCO's functioning. While the SCO is designed to be a more cohesive entity due to its leadership structure, the potential for bilateral issues to disrupt the summit remains a significant concern, highlighting the delicate balance of international relations in the region.