Iran attempts to regain influence amidst sectarian clashes in southern Syria

In the ongoing unrest in Syria’s southern province of Sweida, intense fighting involving Druze fighters and Bedouin tribal militias has created a fragile cease-fire. This has opened a potential avenue for Iranian influence, as Tehran seeks to exploit the opportunity to restore its foothold, which it previously had during the civil war. Iranian forces had long underpinned Bashar al-Assad's government, utilizing established proxy networks to ensure ties across the region, particularly with allied groups in Iraq and Lebanon. However, conditions have significantly changed, complicating Iran's ambitions in the region. The situation has been exacerbated by the rise of local competition among various factions, which makes it difficult for Iranian commanders and their proxies to exert control without facing significant backlash. The Druze community, which predominantly inhabits Sweida, exhibits deep skepticism towards Iran and its Shi'ite affiliates. Meanwhile, local Sunni tribes seem disinterested in accepting outside support as they navigate their own conflicts. Given these complexities, Iran's strategy appears to be more oriented towards cultivating local militias and restoring political relations rather than relying on overt military presence. More recently, Israeli forces have increased their strikes on Iranian-associated targets near the occupied Golan Heights, emphasizing their commitment to countering any Iranian resurgence in the area. These interventions are described by Israeli officials as measures to protect Druze interests, which adds another layer of difficulty for Iran as it attempts to leverage ongoing chaos for its benefit. As well, challenges within the local power structures, represented by shifting loyalties and an emerging warlord environment, complicate the landscape surrounding any potential Iranian influence. As of now, despite the precarious truce in place, the effects of Iran's gradual approach in Syria are unpredictable due to the dwindling resources and enhanced scrutiny from rival nations. Although Tehran has few options, it will continue to lean on covert operations, arms transfers, and efforts to cultivate local political relationships to navigate an uncertain landscape in southern Syria, all while contending with a vigilant Israeli military. Iran's fate in this tumultuous environment remains uncertain as it tries to reclaim a foothold that has become increasingly frail over recent years.