Turkey warns of possible encounters with Israeli jets in Syria

In early May 2025, military tensions escalated in Syrian airspace between Turkey and Israel following Israeli airstrikes aimed at deterring the Syrian government from attacking the Druze minority. The airstrikes were strategically positioned, with one landing only 1,640 feet from the Syrian presidential palace. This incident raised alarms about potential encounters between the Israeli and Turkish Air Forces, as both nations have overlapping interests in the region. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan noted the possibility of future encounters and stressed the need for a deconfliction mechanism to avoid misunderstandings among the two heavily armed American allies. Historically, Turkey has engaged in mock dogfights with Greece over the Aegean Sea, a practice that might now extend to interactions with Israel in Syria. As Turkey supports the Sharaa regime in Syria, it aims to assert control over Syrian airspace, which conflicts with Israel’s operational goals. Conversely, Israel seeks to limit Turkish influence in the region, especially concerning defense bases near its borders. These tensions came to a head in a May 1st incident, where Israeli jets demonstrated caution while still engaging in air operations with significant strategic implications. Despite the absence of a deconfliction mechanism that prevents direct military confrontations, the Israeli Air Force has been conducting targeted operations in Syria, exceeding Turkish military interventions in both scale and impact. The U.S. administration, led by President Donald Trump, has expressed strong interest in mediating the ongoing issues between Turkey and Israel, emphasizing a need for reasonableness on both sides to avert escalation. In light of these occurrences, analysts believe that Israel and Turkey are cautious of being drawn into direct conflict, largely due to the potential repercussions on U.S. relations and broader regional stability. Observers note that while the complexities between the nations may lead to higher tensions, diplomatic avenues still remain open, and both nations have vested interests in preventing any military clashes that could destabilize the region further. Thus, while possible mock dogfights over Syrian airspace could become a new reality, efforts to engage in constructive dialogue are seen as essential to mitigating risks of escalation.