Eastern Pacific hurricane season starts quietly with no imminent storms
- The Eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15, 2025, with no immediate signs of cyclone formation.
- Forecasters predict increased activity later in the season, despite a quiet start.
- This year’s neutral ENSO conditions may lead to varying cyclone patterns in the Atlantic and Pacific.
On Thursday, May 15, 2025, the Eastern Pacific hurricane season officially began, but the meteorological outlook indicates a lack of immediate tropical cyclone formation. Forecast models reflect a generally quiet start, which contrasts with typical early season activity that is often influenced by overarching climatic patterns such as ENSO. Presently, the global atmosphere is classified as neutral, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions dominate, which could contribute to an unpredictably active year ahead. As a result, forecasters believe that while the season begins quietly, increased storm activity is expected as the season progresses. Historically, seasons characterized by La Niña conditions tend to produce storms earlier in the Eastern Pacific, while El Niño years can lead to a more delayed onset. The unique dynamics in play this year result in idle atmospheric conditions but could shift quickly if other influencing factors, like the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), come into play. The MJO's active phases can lead to heightened storm activity, while its suppressed phases can limit cyclone formation, thus presenting a mixed outlook. Forecasters continue to monitor these important patterns closely as we advance further into the hurricane season. Notably, the previous season in 2024 was significantly less active, yielding just 13 named storms and only four hurricanes alongside three major storms, characterized by sustained winds of at least 111 mph. Comparatively, an average hurricane season typically sees about 18 named storms, with 10 hurricanes and four major hurricanes. This years’ expectations for elevated activity are founded on historical averages despite current conditions appearing subdued. Additionally, the ongoing patterns of cyclone activity in the Pacific have extended a sense of calm to other regions, including the Western Pacific, which has yet to report a named storm in 2025. It is essential for meteorologists and forecasters to remain vigilant through this period, especially considering that the storms that do emerge may exhibit enhanced intensity, driven by broader climatic shifts and warming ocean temperatures, contrasting with last year's trends.