Hezbollah demands ceasefire before Lebanon's army disarmament plan proceeds

In Lebanon, discussions regarding a military plan aimed at establishing a state monopoly on arms have intensified following a cabinet session on Friday. This plan, which calls for disarming Hezbollah, was formally presented by the Lebanese army. However, the cabinet did not set a specific timeline for its implementation and highlighted the limited capabilities of the military to execute it effectively. Simultaneously, the background of ongoing Israeli military operations in Lebanon has become critical in shaping the dialogue surrounding the plan. Hezbollah, through its official Mahmoud Qmati, has stated that any further progress on the army's disarmament initiative is contingent upon a cessation of Israeli strikes and a withdrawal of troops from southern Lebanon. Amidst these developments, the Lebanese cabinet expressed acknowledgment of a US roadmap aimed at disarming Hezbollah, yet highlighted that continued Israeli military activities could hinder the army's ability to carry out its disarming task. During the session, Lebanese Information Minister Paul Morcos indicated that while discussions were underway, the government had not officially approved the disarmament initiative. This ambiguity reflects the delicate balance of power within Lebanon, particularly after the 2006 war with Israel, which has since complicated the dialogue around Hezbollah's disarmament. The situation is further complicated by Hezbollah's firm rejection of the decisions made by the government regarding the plan and its expectation for the Lebanese authorities to craft a national defense strategy. It appears there is a growing dissonance between Hezbollah, which is supported by Iran and other regional actors, and the Lebanese government, which is under pressure from the United States, Saudi Arabia, among others, to disarm the Shiite group. Hezbollah has warned that discussing disarmament under the influence of ongoing Israeli military action could be a dangerous misstep, hinting at the potential for civil unrest should the government pursue disarmament measures aggressively. Israeli military strategy has also hinted at possible reductions in troop presence contingent on the Lebanese army's actions regarding Hezbollah's armament. Nevertheless, the persistence of Israeli airstrikes and the destruction they bring complicate the narrative, raising significant concerns about the stability and future of Lebanon as it grapples with these interrelated military and political challenges.