Canada's electricity decarbonization plan faces major challenges by 2035

On October 29, 2024, the Fraser Institute released a study scrutinizing Canada's target for achieving carbon-free electricity generation by 2035. The report, co-authored by Jock Finlayson and Elmira Aliakbari, emphasizes the impracticality of this ambitious goal given the current energy landscape and infrastructure capabilities. Approximately 81 percent of Canada's electricity is already carbon-free, yet the remaining 19 percent relies on fossil fuels, necessitating extensive construction efforts to replace it within a decade. The researchers argue that meeting the goal would require significant energy projects, such as building 23 large hydroelectric dams, constructing over four nuclear power plants, or deploying around 11,000 large wind turbines. The scale of these projects presents considerable financial, regulatory, and logistical challenges, and thus raises concerns about their feasibility in the short timeline provided. Additionally, the study notes that even achieving the existing electricity needs would not address future demands as Canada’s population continues to grow. The lengthy process for planning and constructing major energy facilities, often marked by delays and cost overruns, further complicates the government’s target. In conclusion, the Fraser Institute warns that without realistic planning and timelines, the government's ambitious objective stands as another case of overreaching ambitions without coherent strategies or plans to achieve them.