Azerbaijan rejects Putin's call amid rising tensions with Russia

In late 2023, tensions flared between Azerbaijan and Russia following a police raid in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg targeting an extended family of Azeris. This incident occurred shortly after the two nations appeared to mend relations over the controversial shoot-down of a civilian Azeri airplane by Russia in December. Azerbaijan's leadership, particularly President Ilham Aliyev, reacted strongly by refusing a phone call from Russian President Vladimir Putin while accepting one from Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, reflecting a significant shift in geopolitical alliances. The raid and subsequent diplomatic signals hint at underlying geopolitical discord primarily tied to the Zangezur Corridor. The Zangezur Corridor is essential as it represents a potential trade route that enables Central Asian trade to circumvent Russian territory and reach Turkey directly. Observers suggest that Moscow's exclusion from this corridor plays a crucial role in the recent escalation of hostilities. The geopolitical landscape in the region is further complicated by the historical context of the second Armenia-Azerbaijan war over Nagorno-Karabakh, wherein Azerbaijan regained control of the contested territory despite Russia's military presence in Armenia, which was supposed to offer security for Armenia's capital. This military presence no longer guarantees Azerbaijan's security aspirations, and recent actions by both governments signal deeper conflicts rooted in geopolitical interests, including Russia’s desire to maintain influence in the Caucasus region and Azerbaijan's efforts to assert its independence and foster alliances with Ukraine and Turkey. Experts point to the potential for an Azerbaijan-Russia war as Russia reinforces its military presence in Armenia, anticipating possible confrontation. Moreover, a larger strategic realignment appears to be emerging, with Turkey aiming to strengthen its role as a conduit for energy and trade routes from Central Asia to the West. However, this shift is met with opposition from both Iran and Russia, who are wary of Azerbaijani and Turkish dominance over trade in the region. The situation is precarious, as these various interests clash, making the prospect of a significant geopolitical reconfiguration loom with potential global implications. In summary, what initially seems like isolated confrontations along the borders can lead to broader implications for regional and global power balances. The complex interplay of national interests, historical grievances, and emerging alliances will determine the future dynamics in this vital region.