Doubts rise over the future of Power of Siberia-2 pipeline

In early September 2025, amid significant diplomatic gatherings in China, a deal was announced between China and Russia for the proposed Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline. The pipeline, designed to stretch over 2,600 kilometers, aims to help Russia recover lost gas markets following the ongoing fallout from the war in Ukraine. Despite the favorable diplomatic environment, energy analysts have raised concerns regarding the actual viability of the project. Key negotiations concerning the pricing, capacity, and financial responsibility for construction remain unresolved and could potentially derail progress. The Power of Siberia-2 pipeline is intended to serve as a replacement for part of the gas market that Russia has lost, particularly in the European Union, due to decreased demand stemming from geopolitical tensions. Russian President Vladimir Putin's administration sees the pipeline as a solution to export challenges, while also aiming to fortify energy ties with China, which is currently the largest consumer of Russian pipeline gas. However, China's approach to diversifying its energy imports could complicate matters, as Beijing eases dependencies on a singular supplier. In light of these developments, analysts have pointed out the lack of a binding supply contract following initial announcements, arguing that any memorandum signed does not guarantee the construction of the pipeline. Experts like Erica Downs from Columbia University noted that just because an agreement exists, it does not imply immediate execution. Additionally, Beijing remains able to explore other options, including the possibility of enhancing existing pipelines instead of committing to a newly constructed one. Analysts have observed that China, although presently reliant on Russian gas via the operational Power of Siberia-1 pipeline, is taking a cautious stand. The pricing structure proposed by Beijing seeks to align closer to domestic rates due to the subsidized nature of those prices in Russia. Furthermore, rumors indicate that China may only use 50% of the pipeline’s capacity, a significant reduction compared to traditional commitments, which could hinder the pipeline's commercial success. While hopes for this pipeline persist, any immediate construction is viewed as unlikely, with a timeline for operation extending to at least 2030 given current uncertainties in negotiations and market dynamics.