Soleimani's proxy strategy collapses as groups act independently

In the past few weeks, Iran's attempts to leverage its proxy military organizations have faced significant challenges, especially during recent conflicts with Israel. The foundation of this proxy strategy can be traced back to Iranian strategies that began as early as 1981 in Bahrain, aiming to embed Iranian influence within local states. Soleimani’s grand vision included establishing strong footholds along Israel's borders, preparing these groups, including Hezbollah and Iranian-backed militias, for a moment of activation against perceived threats, such as Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear capabilities. However, recent altercations revealed that the anticipated synchronized actions among these proxies were misguided. For instance, while Hamas heavily relied on Iranian military support, their attacks did not align with Iran’s directives and demonstrated a shift towards independent decision-making. This miscalculation exemplifies a broader failure in Soleimani's approach, undermining Iran's ability to control and coordinate its proxies effectively. The complex dynamics within these organizations have caused them to follow their aspirations, often diverging from Iran’s objectives. Hezbollah's hesitancy to act during recent escalations due to its weakened state and the internal political landscape in Lebanon further complicates Iran's strategic ambitions, showcasing how local factors can outweigh ideological loyalties. Therefore, the Iranian strategy designed to exert regional dominance and bring about Israel’s downfall is currently under severe strain due to its inability to ensure that proxies would remain loyal subordinates rather than assert their own agendas. With these developments, it becomes evident that the broader consequences of Soleimani’s miscalculations could redefine the future of Iran's influence in the region, as the forces intended to serve its interests evolve into entities driven by their own interests and goals.