Kenyans fear job losses if US trade deal is not renewed
- Kenya's export economy heavily relies on the AGOA program, which provides duty-free access to the U.S. market.
- The program has created over 66,000 jobs in Kenya but faces uncertainty as the current agreement nears expiration.
- If AGOA is not renewed, the country will seek alternative markets to avoid potential job losses.
In the context of international trade, Kenya is facing uncertainty regarding the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which has been a crucial aspect of its economic landscape since its inception in 2000. The AGOA program allows eligible African nations that adhere to certain U.S. standards, including governance and human rights, to export goods to the United States duty-free. This agreement has significantly boosted Kenyan exports, particularly in the textile sector. Notably, Kenyan manufacturers export an average of 8 million jeans per year to the U.S., with total exports valued at $510 million in 2023. However, concerns have arisen that the absence of a renewed AGOA deal could expose Kenyan products to tariffs, potentially jeopardizing jobs for approximately 16,000 workers in the textile industry. Notably, this includes the workforce employed by United Aryan, a major jeans manufacturer based in Kenya's capital. The AGOA deal has been beneficial for the Kenyan economy, leading to the creation of 66,000 jobs since the program started, according to government statistics published in 2024. Business owners are advocating for a long-term extension of AGOA to ensure a stable export market as they believe that Africa represents a significant opportunity for U.S. sourcing, particularly given its youthful demographic. Despite the apparent benefits, some African leaders, including Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, have criticized the AGOA conditions, arguing that it is sometimes used as leverage in U.S. foreign policy. Former Kenyan Ambassador to the U.N., Martin Kimani, also expressed that the program's predictability is crucial for long-term industrial growth, suggesting that recent tariffs and expiration dates indicate AGOA's instability as a trade foundation. If the AGOA deal does not extend, industry analysts predict that Kenya must pivot towards alternative markets, such as the African Continental Free Trade Area, to prevent job losses and ensure continued trade. Furthermore, economist James Shikwati emphasized that any reevaluation of trade relations with the U.S. is necessary for Kenya's manufacturers to maintain their export capacity. This precarious situation has left workers fearful, with the potential end of AGOA looming, putting livelihoods at risk, and increasing general concern in the community as the deadline approaches. The outcome of this trade agreement remains pivotal for Kenya's manufacturing sector and its workforce, as many individuals, like United Aryan employee Valdes Samora, hope for a resolution that allows their livelihoods to continue unhindered through the extension of AGOA.