Japan braces for megaquake that could claim 300,000 lives

Japan is facing an impending disaster as its Cabinet Office has issued a dire warning regarding the potential for a megaquake. This assessment suggests that a magnitude 9 earthquake off the country's Pacific coast may result in up to 298,000 deaths and displace over 1.2 million people, around 10% of the national population. The evaluation, released in early 2025, indicates that the economic aftermath could amount to approximately £270 trillion ($1.81 trillion). Several factors contributing to these updated figures include inflationary pressures as well as new terrain and flood data, expanding the expected impact area beyond previous estimates. Experts highlight that the Nankai Trough, where the Philippine Sea Plate is moving beneath the Eurasian Plate, has historically produced major earthquakes every 100 to 150 years. The last significant quakes occurred during the 1940s. Alarmingly, seismologists from Japan's earthquake investigation panel raised the likelihood of a megaquake occurring within the next three decades to over 80% as of January 2025. The report emphasizes the possibility of extensive destruction should such an earthquake strike during unfavorable conditions, particularly late at night in winter, which could exacerbate the consequences. In a related concern, local authorities are now addressing the increasing problem of abandoned buildings throughout Japan. As the population continues to decline and the birth rate remains low, there are rising fears that these dilapidated structures could obstruct relief efforts during a disaster, such as an earthquake. Cities and rural towns alike are filled with vacant buildings like the Marui Imai department store in Kushiro. This situation is pressing policymakers to contemplate legislative measures requiring demolition costs to be factored into construction projects. The government argues that pre-emptive action must be taken to address the risks associated with unsafe buildings, especially as earthquakes become an ever-present threat. Overall, Japan finds itself in a precarious position. Even with advanced early warning systems and significant investments in infrastructural enhancements, experts assert that the nation must intensify its emergency preparedness initiatives to effectively shield communities from the catastrophic impact of a potential megaquake. Failure to do so might lead to widespread devastation, not only in terms of human life but also in the stability of Japan's economy, which could be halved due to this natural disaster.