Reform UK surges ahead of Senedd elections as Labour struggles

In 2025, political dynamics in Wales are shifting as the due date for the Senedd elections approaches, scheduled for May 2026. Traditionally dominated by the Labour Party, recent trends indicate that discontent among Welsh voters could catalyze an important change. The Reform UK party, led by Nigel Farage, has emerged as a potential contender, managing to position itself just behind Labour in several polls. Unlike previous elections, the implementation of a new voting system, which enhances proportional representation, is expected to further boost Reform UK’s appeal, particularly among disillusioned voters from other political parties. This is evidenced by the party securing second place in 13 of the 32 Welsh seats during the last general election. The political tension is also mirrored on a national scale, where the Conservative Party under Kemi Badenoch's leadership fell to third place behind Labour and Reform UK according to Techne UK’s polls. Consequently, all these developments create an environment ripe for new political alliances and potential coalition negotiations, especially among smaller parties like Plaid Cymru.