Riek Machar's arrest sparks fears of renewed civil war in South Sudan

South Sudan, the world's youngest nation, is experiencing rising tensions following the arrest of Vice-President Riek Machar on March 26, 2025. His detention has raised alarms about a potential return to civil war, with Machar's party claiming it has jeopardized the fragile 2018 peace agreement that aimed to end a five-year conflict. The unrest began in early March with violent clashes between the White Army militia, aligned with Machar, and the South Sudanese army in Upper Nile state. The underlying rift is fueled by long-standing ethnic divisions and political competition between Machar and President Salva Kiir, both of whom are in their 70s and have a historical connection through the Sudan People's Liberation Movement. As the nation stands on the brink of renewed violence, Nicholas Haysom, the head of the UN mission in South Sudan, has indicated that the country is teetering toward a full-scale civil war. Despite the delicate situation, Machar's participation in the unity government formed under the 2018 peace agreement was deemed crucial for stability. However, significant aspects of the agreement, including promised elections and the establishment of a new constitution, have yet to be realized. The ongoing political discord and lack of implementation of the peace terms have left the citizens of South Sudan in a precarious position, with recent events exacerbating their already dire living conditions. Concerns are widespread as various factions within South Sudan's complex political landscape may exploit the current crisis. Clashes between military factions and militias can quickly spiral into broader conflict, given the historical animosities and tribal divides that characterize the region. Both Machar and Kiir have faced accusations of failing to uphold their commitments under the peace agreement, and the situation remains tense as international observers monitor the developments. The societal impacts of a return to fighting would undoubtedly be devastating for a nation already burdened by the scars of its previous civil war, which left thousands dead and resulted in a humanitarian catastrophe. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, Member of the European Parliament Tineke Strik has advocated for a proactive international response to safeguard the stability of the region amidst concerns about Milorad Dodik's provocative actions and potential legal consequences. Strik highlighted the need for EUFOR to be prepared to protect the State Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA) during Dodik's anticipated arrest, emphasizing that failure to act promptly could trigger a rule of law crisis similar to that in South Sudan. The interconnectedness of these crises underscores the complexities that arise from entrenched ethnic divisions and the importance of swift international intervention to mitigate further escalation.