Arakan Army claims complete control over northern Rakhine state

In recent developments in Myanmar, the Arakan Army has seized the last military outpost in Maungdaw, consolidating its control over the northern region of Rakhine state. This strategic takeover allows the group to gain full command of the 271-kilometer border with Bangladesh and further advances its aspirations for self-rule. The conflict in this area has intensified since June 2023, when the Arakan Army launched a major offensive against the military government, which took power following the ouster of Aung San Suu Kyi's elected regime in February 2021. Reports indicate that over the past several months, the Arakan Army has captured numerous towns and military installations, raising concerns about the potential for renewed violence against the Rohingya minority, who have historically faced persecution in the region. The situation in Rakhine state is exacerbated by the ongoing broader civil conflict in Myanmar, where various pro-democracy forces and ethnic armed groups are fighting against military rule. As the Arakan Army consolidates gains, it has reported taking control of 11 out of 17 townships in Rakhine and one in Chin state since November. The military presence in the area has weakened significantly, with the group's spokesperson stating that they have captured more than 30 military outposts, placing them on the verge of complete victory over the military's western command. This strategic success not only empowers the Arakan Army but also creates a landscape of escalating tensions and uncertainty. Maungdaw's fall to the Arakan Army may lead to heightened fears of violence against the Rohingya, who were already facing severe challenges following mass displacements in 2017. The capture of territory has drawn attention to the longstanding grievances and ambitions of the ethnic Rakhine community, who seek greater autonomy from Myanmar's central government. The Arakan Army denies committing human rights violations despite accusations that they have forced out large numbers of civilians, including Rohingyas, during their advances. The cutoff of communications in the area further complicates independent verification of events and clarifies the scope of the conflict. With internet access disrupted, the situation remains murky, and the military government's silence on recent developments adds to worries over the implications for security in Rakhine and beyond. Observers note that the socioeconomic consequences of these territorial changes could amplify humanitarian needs across the affected regions, leading to significant political and social ramifications across Myanmar. While some local authorities and populations may welcome the changes brought by the Arakan Army’s control, others remain deeply apprehensive about the prospects for stability as the conflict continues to evolve.