François Bayrou struggles without parliament majority as political instability escalates

In France, François Bayrou, the newly appointed Prime Minister, is navigating his first significant challenge as he faces a fractured parliamentary landscape. The government lacks a clear majority following the collapse of the previous administration, which lasted only three months before being ousted due to a budget dispute. Bayrou's urgent need to pass a budget for 2025 comes at a time of unprecedented political instability, with financial markets and European institutions urging the French government to adhere to EU debt regulations. This financial pressure coincides with an estimated deficit of 6% of France's GDP for 2024. To address the looming budgetary concerns, an emergency law was enacted to enable the state to levy taxes starting from January 1 and to meet essential expenses, preventing a potential government shutdown. Bayrou's coalition consists of centrists and conservatives who do not collectively hold a parliamentary majority. To bolster his support, Bayrou is attempting to forge a non-aggression pact with the Socialists, avoiding the tumultuous dynamics that led to his predecessor’s downfall. Despite these efforts, the far-right remains a formidable opposition, led by Marine Le Pen, a key figure in the previous government's ousting, whose influence continues to shape the political landscape. Bayrou has opted for dialogue with the Socialists, Greens, and Communists regarding budgetary issues, a decision that has prompted criticism from far-right leaders. As discussions unfold, the possibility of introducing measures that could provoke dissatisfaction across parties looms over Bayrou, especially concerning Macron's pension reform laws, which require workers to contribute for 43 years to receive full benefits. The legislative pressure is compounded by significant financial implications tied to the pension reform, which if repealed, could cost the government billions in the coming years. Bayrou must balance these complex political negotiations with the urgent need to reassure markets and uphold commitments to reduce the national deficit. With a vote on the budget approaching, the outcome remains uncertain, as the far-right’s refusal to support additional taxes and healthcare provisions for immigrants further complicates the government's position. As the political landscape shifts, Bayrou's leadership and strategies will be critical in determining France's financial and governmental stability in the short term.