Bureau of Labor Statistics drastically revises job growth figures downward

In the United States, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released a revised report on September 9, 2025, that dramatically adjusted the nonfarm payrolls numbers for the year leading up to March. The revisions showed that the labor market created significantly fewer jobs than had previously been estimated, with a downward adjustment of 911,000 jobs. This alteration in the job figures was determined from a preliminary assessment prompted by updated information from the quarterly census, which includes new data on business openings and closures. The revision represents a substantial increase of over 50% compared to last year's adjustments, marking it as the largest overall change since 2002. The implications of the revised data are significant, indicating an average monthly job growth rate that is 76,000 less than what was initially reported. The findings suggest that the labor market was weaker than once thought throughout much of 2024 and into early 2025. Economists are noting that this slowdown in job creation points to softer income growth even before the increased uncertainty and economic slowdown became evident in the spring of 2025. Oren Klachkin, a market economist at Nationwide Financial, highlighted that the revisions could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, potentially prompting them to consider restarting their cutting cycle due to a weakening labor market. The quarterly census data showed that most job sectors were revised downward, with significant decreases in leisure and hospitality, which alone saw a drop of 176,000 jobs. Other areas, including professional and business services, were adjusted down by 158,000, and retail trade faced a reduction of 126,200 jobs. Interestingly, while most sectors faced downward adjustments, transportation and warehousing sectors, along with utilities, experienced increases. The changes in job figures also hinted at ongoing employment struggles, shedding light on an economy that was weakening prior to the imposition of tariffs during the Trump administration. Given that the majority of the revised data were from periods before his administration, it underscores potential systemic issues within the labor market. Additionally, the August jobs report indicated that only 22,000 new jobs were added, following a disappointing growth of 73,000 jobs in July. This pattern of slow growth led to the controversial decision by President Trump to dismiss the BLS administrator, which raised eyebrows regarding the handling of labor statistics during his tenure. Overall, the latest BLS report and subsequent analyses suggest a need for heightened scrutiny over the recovery trajectory of the U.S. labor market, as well as the economic policies currently in place.