Republican Support Declines in Wisconsin Suburbs

Wisconsin's WOW counties—Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington—have long been strongholds for the Republican Party, but recent trends indicate a significant shift in political dynamics. Historically, these suburban counties have been pivotal in state elections, with Waukesha County often viewed as a bellwether. In the 2008 election, for instance, President Obama secured victories in 59 of Wisconsin's 72 counties, yet he garnered less than 40% of the vote in the WOW counties, highlighting their Republican leanings. However, recent analyses suggest that Ozaukee County, once the most Republican in the state, is losing its political clout. Political analyst Wagner noted that Ozaukee has dropped from its former status, now ranking around 40th in Republican support. While the Republican gubernatorial candidate won the county in 2022, the margin was significantly reduced compared to previous elections, indicating a potential decline in Republican dominance. Conversely, Washington County is emerging as the most Republican of the three, with Trump winning by nearly 40 points in 2020. This contrasts sharply with Ozaukee County, where Trump's victory margin fell to just 12 points, a stark decline from Romney's nearly 30-point win in 2012. The shifting allegiances within these counties may be influenced by key issues, particularly abortion, which has become a focal point in recent elections, as evidenced by the mixed results in local voting on related questions.