Russia boosts military presence in Syria ahead of more Libya flights

In recent days, significant events have unfolded in Syria with the fall of President Bashar al-Assad's regime. Following the successful advance of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebels on December 12, 2024, the Syrian government faced a chaotic collapse reminiscent of the fall of Afghanistan's government three years prior. This upheaval led to the movement of military assets as the victorious rebels aimed to consolidate their hold over the territory. After the collapse, Russian officials reported increased activity at the Hmeimim airbase in Latakia, with cargo planes departing towards Libya carrying military equipment. The collapse has raised questions about the extent of military assets left behind in Syria. Much of the Assad regime’s arsenal, consisting of Soviet- and Russian-made weapons, is now in the hands of the HTS rebels. Despite attempts by the Israeli military to dismantle the Assad regime’s capabilities with airstrikes, Russian military operations continued to maintain a support presence in the region. However, it is yet unclear what specific equipment may have been abandoned or captured during the turmoil. In the context of the broader geopolitical landscape, this scenario echoes concerns over how client states' collapses affect international players, with both the United States and Russia experiencing significant losses. While the U.S. left behind approximately $7 billion worth of military equipment after Afghanistan's fall, Russia has reportedly suffered even greater losses in Syria with thousands of armored vehicles and aircraft, marking a substantial setback for Moscow as they sought to maintain influence in the region. The implications of these developments are profound, as they signal a shift in power dynamics within Syria and highlight the ongoing complexities of international involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts. As Russia continues to evacuate personnel and equipment from Syria, the outcome of these changes remains to be seen, particularly in terms of the strategic capabilities of both Russia and its former allies in the region.