Lukashenko's Release of Political Prisoners: A Strategy for Survival

Belarus has recently released political prisoners as part of a strategy to improve relations with the European Union ahead of the 2025 presidential elections. In August and September, a total of 97 prisoners were pardoned, which the regime framed as acts of mercy. Political analyst Yuri Voskresensky suggested that further releases could occur if dialogue with the West is established. However, the EU has expressed skepticism, emphasizing the need for the release of all political prisoners and calling for stronger sanctions against Belarus. As of early 2024, there were at least 1,430 recognized political prisoners in Belarus, with human rights defenders estimating the actual number to be higher. Many of these individuals face severe conditions, including torture and inadequate medical care. New arrests continue to occur, with several individuals detained for participating in protests against the 2020 presidential elections. Lukashenko's regime may use the releases to portray a narrative of strength, claiming that it can withstand EU pressure. If the EU does not respond positively, the regime could accuse it of inaction regarding political prisoners, potentially justifying closer ties with Russia and engagement with China. This situation poses a dilemma for the EU, as engaging with Lukashenko could undermine support for pro-democracy forces in Belarus. With the 2025 elections approaching, the window for effective action is narrowing. If the situation is not managed properly, those opposing the dictatorship may continue to face severe repercussions, highlighting the urgent need for a strategic response from the EU and the international community.