Homebuyers expect recession but view it as a buying opportunity
- A recent survey by Realtor.com shows that 63.4% of American homebuyers expect a recession by early 2026.
- Many view this potential recession as an opportunity, with 29.8% stating it would make them more likely to buy a home.
- The overall sentiment indicates a shift in perspective where long-term benefits of homeownership are prioritized over short-term economic concerns.
In a new survey conducted by Realtor.com, many American homebuyers are expressing expectations of an impending recession within the next year. Specifically, 63.4% of respondents indicated that they believe a recession will arrive by early 2026. This concern mirrors historical trends seen in previous high-stress periods, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes between 2022 and 2023. Interestingly, rather than deterring home purchases, many potential buyers see the coming recession as an opportunity to enter the housing market. The survey results reveal a significant shift in mindset, where 29.8% of those surveyed stated that a recession would increase their likelihood of buying a home. This number is notably higher than the 15.8% who reported that a recession would discourage them from making a purchase. The potential for lower mortgage rates, should the Federal Reserve initiate cuts in response to a recession, enhances the perspective that this economic downturn may present favorable conditions for homebuyers, particularly those who may have limited savings for down payments. Moreover, homebuyers whose purchasing decisions are unaffected by economic changes may prioritize long-term ownership benefits over immediate market fluctuations. This group may possess financial stability or a commitment to real estate investment, leading them to view homeownership as advantageous regardless of economic uncertainties. As market conditions evolve, it is essential to recognize trends that could shift buyer confidence and purchasing priorities moving forward. The ongoing housing crisis remains a critical aspect of these discussions, with active housing inventory levels approximately 16% below pre-pandemic figures from 2017 to 2019. This reduced availability could create additional pressures on buyers. Furthermore, 36% of respondents cited budget constraints as their main barrier to purchasing a home, a challenge that is likely to intensify with fluctuating tariffs affecting market prices. Overall, while many American homebuyers are aware of potential economic difficulties, their responses indicate a complex relationship between economic downturns and investing in real estate.