Hurricane forecasters predict below-normal activity through September peak

Hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University predict that tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin will remain at normal or below-normal levels through at least mid-September. As of September 4, the season has recorded five named storms, three hurricanes, and one major hurricane, which is below the average of seven named storms and two hurricanes by this time. Factors contributing to the current inactivity include anomalous cooling in the Gulf of Guinea, the positioning of the monsoon trough over Africa, and dry air in the eastern basin. Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane specialist, noted that the chance of above-normal activity in the coming weeks is only 10%. Despite the current inactivity, he emphasized that it is premature to conclude the season's potential. There are indications that conditions may improve, particularly with a strong easterly wave expected to move off Africa soon, which could enhance activity in the Gulf of Mexico. While the season could still reach normal levels of activity, with forecasts suggesting 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, significantly above-average activity seems unlikely. The 2022 season serves as a reminder that even a near-normal season can have severe impacts, as evidenced by Hurricane Ian, which caused substantial damage. Globally, tropical cyclone activity is at record-low levels despite warm sea surface temperatures, raising questions about future trends. Experts suggest that while fewer storms are forming, those that do are becoming more intense and costly, indicating a potential shift in the nature of tropical cyclones worldwide.