Harley-Davidson predicts significant drop in Q2 earnings amid economic uncertainty

In the United States, Harley-Davidson is preparing to announce its Q2 2025 earnings on July 30, 2025. The consensus forecast predicts earnings to be around $0.96 per share, which is a notable decrease from $1.63 per share in the same quarter of the previous year. Furthermore, the expected revenue for this period is approximately $1.1 billion, reflecting nearly a 19% decline year-over-year. This downturn hints at a decreasing interest in the brand's high-end, lifestyle-oriented motorcycles, particularly as consumer confidence remains weakened due to high interest rates and ongoing economic uncertainty. The tariffs imposed during the Trump Administration have exacerbated challenges for the company's global supply chain, leading to increased costs for certain imported parts, creating further complications for the brand. In response to these challenges, Harley-Davidson has suspended its full-year 2025 outlook due to the unpredictable nature of trade policies and macroeconomic conditions. Despite these uncertainties, management has emphasized their commitment to cost control measures and tighter inventory management in order to navigate these issues effectively. Currently, the company holds a market capitalization of $3.0 billion, with reported revenue of $4.8 billion over the past twelve months. They managed to achieve operational profitability during this period, generating $314 million in operating profits alongside $354 million in net income. The forthcoming earnings announcement is critical, as much rides on the comparison of actual results against both consensus predictions and market expectations. Historical performance of Harley-Davidson’s stock suggests that there are strategies to capitalize on these earnings announcements through event-driven trading. Investors can either analyze the historical odds and position themselves ahead of the announcement or assess the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns following earnings to navigate their trading strategies. Looking back over the past five years, there have been 17 recorded earnings data points with 11 resulting in positive one-day returns and 6 yielding negative returns. However, when focusing on the last three years, this percentage of positive returns drops to 64%. The median of the positive returns stands at 7.8%, while the negative returns average at -6.8%. Additionally, there are insightful correlations observed between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings. Furthermore, the stock performance of similar company peers can also influence reactions to Harley-Davidson's earnings results, highlighting the interconnectedness within the market during earnings season.