Trzaskowski leads polls in pivotal Polish presidential election

Poland held a presidential election on May 1, 2025, following the end of Andrzej Duda's two consecutive terms. In this election, significant attention was directed towards the two main candidates: Rafał Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw, and Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian supported by the Law and Justice (PiS) party. The election occurs amid rising concerns about security, democracy, and Poland's role within the European Union, particularly due to pressures stemming from Russia and the ongoing war in Ukraine. Their campaign strategies contrast sharply, with Trzaskowski advocating for EU integration and judicial independence, while Nawrocki promotes a more nationalistic agenda, skeptical of Brussels. This election not only impacts domestic policies but also the transatlantic relationship with the United States, as Nawrocki's support aligns closely with Donald Trump. On May 1, Nawrocki visited the White House, signaling strong U.S. backing for his candidacy. Both candidates have pledged to support Ukraine while differing on social policies, providing a clear choice for voters on the future direction of Poland and its governance. The election results will determine the immediate political landscape, especially in relation to Prime Minister Donald Tusk's agenda and his efforts to restore judicial independence in the country, along with addressing social issues like abortion and LGBTQ+ rights. Should Trzaskowski win, Tusk's path towards reforming Poland’s judiciary and enhancing democratic norms would become less obstructed. Conversely, a Nawrocki victory may solidify the PiS's influence and reinforce a conservative approach to governance.