Taiwan marks 2027 as potential target year for China's invasion

Taiwan has identified 2027 as a potential year for an invasion by China during its annual military drills, marking the first time such a specific date has been designated. The Taiwanese Defence Ministry released this information on March 18, 2025, during a briefing for lawmakers regarding upcoming war games meant to simulate a Chinese military attack. The drills are set to take place over an extended period of ten days this summer, illustrating Taiwan's commitment to enhancing military preparedness in light of rising tensions with Beijing. This announcement has raised questions within Taiwan about its implications for defense strategies and political signaling. During a press conference on March 19, Defence Minister Wellington Koo acknowledged the significance of the designated year but downplayed the idea that this date would directly alter military exercises. He explained that the Han Kuang Exercise typically projects a timeline of one to two years into the future in order to accommodate new weapon acquisitions and the necessary validation of rigorous training exercises. Observations by various analysts, including Jack Chen, director of Formosa Defence Vision, suggest that designating 2027 may serve as a strategic move to garner public and legislative support for increased military spending amidst a standoff in Taiwan's Parliament, which involves opposition parties questioning defense budgets. There is a broader context surrounding Taiwanese politics, as President Xi Jinping of China has publicly asserted that the People’s Liberation Army aims to become a modern military force by 2027 and a world-class military by 2047. Recent reports from U.S. officials indicate that China may be preparing for an invasion by 2027, citing an ongoing buildup of military assets including advanced fighter aircraft and increased stockpiles of both ballistic and cruise missiles since 2020. Conversely, Taiwanese officials, including Minister Koo, have previously dismissed such assessments from the U.S. regarding China's capabilities for amphibious operations against Taiwan. The issue becomes more complex due to internal corruption within the PLA, which has sparked doubts about the military's operational readiness. An annual Pentagon report cited that investigations into corruption could undermine Xi Jinping’s military modernization goals and decrease confidence in high-ranking PLA officials. Since the inauguration of Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te in May 2024, pressure from Beijing has intensified, characterized by large-scale military drills and the regular incursion of Chinese warplanes across a de facto boundary near Taiwan. The situation has further been complicated by U.S. President Donald Trump's statements encouraging Taiwan to increase its military budgets, while maintaining a stance of strategic ambiguity regarding U.S. military support in the event of an invasion. With this backdrop, the comments from Wang Huning, a senior Chinese leader overseeing Taiwan affairs, emphasize Beijing’s intent to achieve what they call the 'inevitable reunification' with Taiwan, framing any resistance as futile.