Indian markets show caution amid mixed global signals

On Thursday, March 13, 2025, the Indian stock market opened with cautious movements, with the Sensex increasing by 70.75 points to reach 74,100.51, while the Nifty index decreased by 2.00 points settling at 22,468.50. Investors have shown mixed sentiment as they reacted to various global and domestic economic cues, which are shaping market trends. Specifically, among the companies listed on the Nifty, 18 stocks experienced gains, while 31 stocks faced declines, and one stock remained unchanged during the opening phase of the market. The top gainers included prominent companies such as ONGC, BEL, Tata Steel, IndusInd Bank, and Power Grid. In contrast, the biggest losers in the early trading sessions were Sriram Finance, M&M, Bajaj Auto, Eicher Motors, and Adani Ports. Ajay Bagga, a banking expert, pointed out the influence of global factors on the Indian stock market, particularly noting the implications of the lower-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which led to a modest uptick in the US stock markets despite an overall drop of 3% for the week. Moreover, Bagga underscored the ongoing tensions surrounding the anticipated trade war initiated by the Trump administration, as Canada, China, and the European Union have already enacted tariffs on specific US exports. He indicated that the current market sentiment is balancing out between an oversold US market experiencing a minor technical bounce versus a withdrawal from risk-based assets by investors. These trade war developments pose significant potential risks for the Indian and global markets. Adding to the context of domestic pressures, Bagga highlighted that Indian inflation has recently eased due to a decrease in food prices; he also remarked on the optimistic performance of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), which surpassed previous estimates. Bagga predicted that as the market approaches a long weekend, many positions in India may be adjusted by the afternoon. This will lead smaller, regular allocations being advised by several foreign brokerages, indicating that this period could be ideal for investors looking for potential opportunities to enter the Indian market. Furthermore, Akshay Chinchalkar from Axis Securities analyzed technical trends stating that although the Nifty managed to recover from a significant drop earlier, it did not manage to close positively the previous day, pointing to a critical support zone while cautioning about the existing resistance levels. Overall, the outlook for the market is deemed as range-bound, with an anticipation that a significant market bottom might form as the new financial year approaches. Investors and analysts are keeping a vigilant eye on both domestic and international indicators for further cues about the market direction.