Peter Thiel reveals two U.S. cities that defy expectations
- UK inflation increased to 2.6% in November 2024, marking the second monthly rise.
- The rise is influenced by structural issues like energy prices and wage growth.
- These factors have led markets to anticipate no interest rate cuts from the Bank of England this December.
In November 2024, the U.K. economy experienced a notable rise in inflation, with the Office for National Statistics reporting a figure of 2.6%. This increase followed a September low of 1.7% and an October rate of 2.3%. The rise in inflation has been attributed to various factors, including the recent adjustments to the energy price cap set by regulators and ongoing pressures within the labor market. The core inflation, excluding volatile items such as energy and food, was recorded at 3.5%, slightly below economists' expectations of 3.6%. The stable yet concerning rise of inflation in the services sector, which is a significant aspect of the U.K. economy, contributed to the market's perception that there is little chance for an interest rate cut from the Bank of England in the near future. As regular wage growth improved to 5.2% from the preceding period of 4.9%, it alleviated concerns for cuts that might have been anticipated during the central bank's meetings. Analysts mentioned that ongoing trends within the labor market and government policies, including increased public sector pay and raised minimum wage, would intensify existing inflationary pressures. There are apprehensions amongst economists regarding the U.K.'s growth trajectory, which has now slipped below the projections set by the Bank of England. Notably, the economy contracted by 0.1% in October. The fluctuations in inflation had a direct impact on currency markets as well, with the British pound dropping against both the U.S. dollar and the euro following the inflation report release. The potential for maintaining or altering monetary policies in the upcoming December meeting of the Bank of England is currently under scrutiny as markets price in the implications of these inflation trends. After significant interest rate cuts previously in the year, maintaining stability might reflect cautious optimism about the economy moving forward.