Ray Dalio warns of looming recession in the U.S
- 62% of U.S. CEOs now predict a recession within six months, up from 48% in March.
- Concerns about President Trump's tariff policies have intensified, contributing to economic uncertainty.
- The overall sentiment from corporate leaders suggests a significant lack of confidence in the U.S. economy's near-term prospects.
In the United States, a growing number of CEOs are expressing concern about an impending recession as of April 2025. A survey revealed that 62% of over 300 CEOs expected a downturn within the next six months, a sharp increase from 48% in March. The rising apprehension is rooted in the ongoing tariff policies introduced by President Donald Trump, which have led to increased volatility in the financial markets and unease among consumers. Many executives believe that these tariffs could negatively impact their businesses significantly. The survey conducted by Chief Executive, an industry group, highlights the stark decline in CEO sentiment regarding business conditions. The index reflecting current business conditions fell 9% in April, following a 20% drop in March, reaching its lowest level since the onset of the pandemic in early 2020. Although the outlook for the next year remained stable, the overall perspective of CEOs has deteriorated sharply over the past few months, indicating deepening fears about economic stability. Lawrence Summers, a former Treasury Secretary, has been vocal about the risks of a recession, asserting that there’s a 60% chance that it could begin within the year. He hinted at the potential repercussions, predicting that such a downturn could leave millions more Americans unemployed and drastically decrease household income. Furthermore, other economic experts, such as Moody's Analytics Mark Zandi, stated that if uncertainty persists around U.S. trade policies, a recession could materialize in just a few weeks. Adding to the alarming sentiments, Goldman CEO David Solomon remarked that significant uncertainty is affecting corporate CEOs and institutional investors, limiting their decision-making capabilities. Meanwhile, the financial markets are reflecting increased recession fears, with stock prices exhibiting downward trends despite some recovery efforts. As the warning signs continue to flash from corporate leaders, the extent of the economic challenges the U.S. may face is becoming increasingly evident, serving as a potential wake-up call for the administration and business leaders alike.