Russia and China expand Arctic influence amid global warming

The Northern Sea Route (NSR) has emerged as a significant maritime trade route due to global warming, connecting East Asia with Europe. This route is increasingly attractive for merchants seeking to avoid congested and unstable shipping lanes like the Strait of Malacca and the Suez Canal. Russia views the NSR as a vital corridor for transporting Arctic oil and gas, leveraging its geographical position to exert control over this strategic passage. Russia's approach includes implementing stringent regulations on shipping and pollution, which exceed international standards. This allows Russia to assert its claims over the NSR while challenging the interpretations of international law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The U.S. and EU have contested Russia's stance, arguing for adherence to UNCLOS principles regarding shipping and transit passage. China is also expanding its presence in the Arctic, rapidly developing its icebreaker fleet to facilitate trade through the NSR. This has resulted in significantly reduced transit times for Chinese imports from Russia, enhancing China's economic interests in the region. Meanwhile, the U.S. Coast Guard's capabilities are limited, with only a couple of icebreakers compared to Russia's extensive fleet. To counter these developments, the U.S. must collaborate with allies to uphold maritime law and challenge Russia's claims. This includes monitoring dual-use research activities by both Russia and China, ensuring compliance with international norms, and advocating for a unified interpretation of maritime law to maintain a rules-based order in the Arctic.