NASA warns of increased chance for asteroid to impact the moon
- NASA re-evaluated the threat level of asteroid 2024 YR4, initially thought to be aimed at Earth.
- The asteroid now has a 3.8% chance of impacting the moon in 2032, a notable increase from earlier estimates.
- Despite the increased risk to the moon, the impact would not change the moon's orbit.
NASA announced a notable shift regarding near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4, which is approximately the size of a 10-story building. Initially thought to pose a serious threat to Earth, with predictions of a potential impact in 2032, assessments by NASA and experts in the planetary defense community have significantly changed. By late February 2023, the risk to Earth was deemed 'near-zero', a drastic reduction from earlier predictions. This change was based on ongoing observations using advanced telescopes, including the James Webb Space Telescope. Despite the lowered threat to Earth, insights indicate that asteroid 2024 YR4 now has an increased probability of impacting the moon. From 1.7% as of late February, the likelihood of a lunar impact has risen to 3.8%. The updated statistics were primarily informed by continued monitoring and analysis of the asteroid's trajectory, which is vital for planetary defense strategies. NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies has been at the forefront of these evaluations, ensuring that the public is kept informed about potential celestial threats. As for the asteroid itself, measurements suggest that it is between 174 to 220 feet in size. Early in the year, the broader public was alarmed by reports describing it as a 'city-destroying' asteroid. However, the revised projections have assuaged fears regarding a direct collision with Earth. NASA experts emphasize that, even if the asteroid were to impact the moon, it would not alter the satellite's orbit. Although the risk remains low, the agency continues to monitor the asteroid closely. In the coming weeks, following mid-April, ground-based telescopes will likely be unable to observe the asteroid due to its distance and diminished brightness. Nonetheless, the James Webb Space Telescope is expected to provide updates on asteroid 2024 YR4's trajectory starting in May 2023. This continued observation is essential for understanding and preparing for any future impacts from near-Earth objects. The revelations regarding 2024 YR4 highlight the importance of continual scientific observation and international collaboration in monitoring potential threats from space.