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Highlights
  • JP Morgan analyst Harlan Sur maintains an Overweight rating on Broadcom, projecting revenues above market expectations.
  • Sur anticipates strong growth in AI revenues, forecasting approximately $12 billion in 2024 and $17 billion to $18 billion in 2025.
  • Broadcom is positioned for significant growth driven by optimistic market dynamics and strong AI fundamentals.
Story

In the lead-up to Broadcom's fiscal fourth-quarter 2024 earnings report, scheduled for December 12, 2024, JP Morgan analyst Harlan Sur has reiterated an Overweight rating for the semiconductor giant. Sur projects revenues between $14.2 billion and $14.3 billion, slightly exceeding market consensus expectations, driven by a strong profile in artificial intelligence (AI) product demand amid a cyclical recovery in the semiconductor market. He expects an adjusted earnings per share of $1.40 for the period, signaling strong performance in AI and other sectors. Sur has pointed to Broadcom's significant potential in the AI sector, forecasting that the company will generate approximately $12 billion to $12.5 billion in AI revenues in fiscal 2024, representing a threefold increase year-on-year. He envisions even higher revenues of $17 billion to $18 billion in 2025 as broader AI market dynamics are expected to positively impact the company’s growth trajectory. Furthermore, Sur highlighted that increased customer engagement and a robust pipeline of AI revenue opportunities could result in an anticipated compound annual growth rate of 30% to 40% in AI semiconductor revenue over the next four to five years, implying a potential cumulative AI revenue opportunity of over $150 billion. In addition to AI, Sur cited Broadcom's software sector, particularly VMware, expecting continued strong performance due to high retention rates and new opportunities stemming from its customer base. Despite anticipating temporary revenue transitions related to AI products, especially during higher demand fluctuations with Google's AI processor transitioning, he noted that the underlying fundamentals for the AI sector remain sound. Consequently, Sur suggests that investors remain optimistic about Broadcom's prospects in the coming quarters, bolstered by the company's ability to maintain its dividend growth and create value in its diversified semiconductor operations. As the market watches closely, recent options activity has indicated considerable interest among large investors in Broadcom’s stock, reflecting both bullish and bearish sentiments. Although a significant percentage of options traders are currently more bearish, expectations of strong earnings and market recoveries could influence future price movements. Overall, Broadcom emerges as a potentially strong player in a recovering market, especially in the lucrative field of AI technology, which could drive substantial growth in the coming fiscal years.

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