South Korea Goes Nuclear. Then What?

The potential for South Korea to develop a nuclear arsenal raises significant strategic questions for both Seoul and Washington. Achieving a survivable nuclear capability would likely require South Korea to match North Korea's estimated arsenal of around 50 nuclear weapons, which could take a decade or more. This period poses a risk, as adversaries like North Korea and China may attempt to disrupt South Korea's progress by targeting its nuclear facilities. During this vulnerable phase, the role of the United States becomes crucial, as South Korea would expect continued protection and support from its ally. The implications of South Korea's nuclear ambitions extend beyond regional security dynamics. If South Korea moves forward with its nuclear program, it could provoke North Korea and China to take aggressive actions against it. This escalation could embolden South Korean leaders to adopt a more confrontational stance, increasing the risk of military conflict in the region. Moreover, the U.S. response to South Korea's nuclear development is uncertain. Policymakers in Washington may face pressure to impose sanctions or, conversely, to amend nonproliferation laws to accommodate South Korea's nuclear aspirations. The historical context of nuclear proliferation suggests that if the U.S. were to allow such a carve-out for allies, it could lead to a domino effect, prompting other nations to pursue their own nuclear capabilities. In conclusion, while there are compelling reasons for South Korea to consider nuclear armament due to threats from North Korea, the broader consequences of such a decision could destabilize the region and challenge existing nonproliferation frameworks.